How would 2024 MotoGP title picture look without sprint races?

It’s almost exactly two years since MotoGP announced that it would be adding sprint races to grand prix weekends from the 2023 campaign.

Announced on 20 August 2022, days after riders first became aware of it through media reports, the half-distance contests instantly divided opinion - largely due to them being implemented at every single round.

While this was the norm in World Superbikes, many wondered if the untested format perhaps should have been trialled first at select rounds - more akin to Formula 1’s sprint approach - instead of the all-in risk Dorna took.

While the addition of 20 extra races almost certainly contributed to no single contest last year featuring the entire full-time 2023 grid, the aim to boost trackside attendance did certainly come to pass.

And in terms of the championship battle, the sprints ensured it ran to the wire. Based on grand prix results alone, Francesco Bagnaia would have been the runaway champion with 327 points versus 260 for Jorge Martin - meaning the title would have been sewn up in Qatar.

Eleven rounds into the 2024 season, we can now get a better understanding of whether or not the sprint influence last year was merely a fluke.

After the Austrian Grand Prix last weekend, Bagnaia leads the way with 275 points, while Martin is just five adrift on 270.

Removing the sprint points would create a championship top five that would look like this:

1 Bagnaia - 218 (Current - 275)
2 Martin - 175 (Current - 270)
3 Bastianini - 161 (Current - 214)
4 Marquez - 134 (Current - 192)
5 Binder - 100 (Current - 128)

Martin has done most of his damage in the championship this year on Saturdays, scoring a total of 95 points with a total of four wins and nine podiums overall.

Bagnaia has done solidly in sprints on 57 points with three wins, but its his haul of seven grand prix victories versus Martin’s two that would elevate him 43 points clear heading to Aragon if only GP points were awarded.

Intriguingly, removing sprint points would put Enea Bastianini closer to Martin in the battle for second in the standings. Currently, 56 points splits them, but that gap would be just 14 without sprint results.

That would change the complexion of Ducati’s championship situation considerably, leading one to think the Italian brand may opt to utilise team orders more and try to use Bastianini as a proper tailgunner for Bagnaia.

Marquez’s championship situation doesn’t really change much without sprint results. Currently 83 points off the lead, without Saturday points he would be 84 adrift - though with only 225 theoretically left for the remaining nine rounds even being considered an outside challenger would be tough.

What would the 2024 title battle look based solely on sprints?

If we take only the sprint points from this year, again the championship looks completely different.

As mentioned, Martin has remained the best sprint rider this season and would have a comfortable points lead based purely on Saturday results:

1 Martin - 95
2 Marquez - 58
3 Bagnaia - 57
4 Bastianini - 53
5 Vinales - 51

Martin would have a 37-point lead heading to Aragon, which is just over three sprints wins of advantage over his rivals. With 108 left up for grabs, Martin is heading towards an early wrap-up of what would be his second world title if the same scenario applied last year.

In this example, Marquez finds himself in second in a tight battle for runner-up spot alongside Bagnaia, Bastianini and Vinales - with the Aprilia’s Saturday form fully masking the deficiencies it has faced on Sundays.

Ironically, Marquez’s wait for a first race win since the 2021 Emilia Romagna GP would still be ongoing, with all five of his sprint podiums in 2024 second-place finishes. If sprint points were the only metric factoring into the title battle, it leads to a fun scenario where Ducati’s 2025 rider market drama would likely look quite different. But that’s a can of worms best left sealed.

What about the F1 system?

F1’s approach to sprints in having just six of them across its calendar offers the occasional bit of intrigue to a race weekend.

Let’s say MotoGP had adopted this format and hosted sprints at the Americas, Italian, British and Austrian GPs so far, with another set for the Emilia Romagna GP and a final one in Valencia.

The championship picture would look like this:

1 Bagnaia - 244
2 Martin - 200
3 Bastianini - 183
4 Marquez - 152
5 Binder - 113

In this scenario, Bagnaia holds a commanding lead of 44 points over Martin, though again Bastianini is much closer to second at 17 points adrift.

Marquez’s championship hopes remain remote, while the Sunday problems for the Aprilia means KTM’s Brad Binder sneaks ahead of Vinales into fifth - though only by six points.

With the next sprint after Austria the second race at Misano, that could prove to be a pivotal moment either of the top four’s title hopes. In theory the Emilia Romagna GP will be a close affair, given everyone will have raced the San Marino GP and taken part in the post-race test there.

The threat of a final sprint showdown in Valencia should keep the flyaways interesting.

While in every alternate scenario, the championship picture changes quite significantly, in none of them do we have a title battle as close as we do now.

Sprints have had time to assimilate into the normal cycle of life in MotoGP now, so like anything the world just gets on with it. But with just five points splitting the top two in the standings after 11 round in 2024, we can say with certainty now that sprints have earned their keep.