Ducati favourites for Austrian MotoGP, but which rider will reign supreme?

Defeated just twice in Austria since 2016, including the two ‘Styrian’ events during Covid, Ducati arrives for this weekend’s Red Bull Ring MotoGP round having filled seven of the top eight places last time at Silverstone.

Little surprise then that the Crash.net Podcast panel tip the Desmosedicis as tough to beat on Sunday. But which rider will emerge victorious?

Podcast host Jordan Moreland said: “Bagnaia is looking to bounce back after Silverstone, where he had to salvage something in the Grand Prix with a third place.

“But he’s looking to make it three wins in a row in Austria, which has always been a fantastic circuit for Ducati. But can Martin or Bastianini really take it to him this weekend?”

“It seems like you can pretty much bet on Bagnaia and Martin always being up there,” replied Crash.net MotoGP editor Pete McLaren. “But, as you mention, Bastianini is probably the biggest question mark for me. Can he continue this run?

“They use revised rear tyres in Austria due to the nature of the track, with a reinforced construction, which changes things a little bit. Maybe that’s part of what plays into Ducati's hands, with their rear grip.

“If tyre degradation comes into it, your money would be on Bastianini in those situations. But overhauling Bagnaia and stopping him making it three in a row will be a very tough task.”

Quizzed on the Martin-Bagnaia title fight, which has now flipped back into the Pramac rider’s favour by a slim 3 points, MotoGP journalist Lewis Duncan said:

“Before the summer break, I would have been ‘100% Pecco is going to walk this weekend’. But I kind of thought that was going to be the case at Silverstone and we didn't have that.

“I’d predicted after Germany that Martin’s title challenge would maybe start to stutter. And it hasn't.

“On paper, the circuit characteristics really do play into Bagnaia’s hands, lots of hard braking and getting the bike out at the corners. In theory, that should suit Bastianini as well. But the form guide is a bit harder to predict for him.

“If the strong qualifying from Silverstone does carry on, if that's a legitimate [step], then I think Bastianini’s in a much, much stronger place.

“Martin obviously won for the first time in Austria, so he's got good form around here. But last year was a bit scrappy, he had that turn-one pile up in the sprint while Pecco was perfect.

“So it really is finely poised and I think you guys discussed it in the podcast last week that it’s kind of a nightmare for Ducati in terms of this championship situation, with two of the guys [Martin and Bastianini] leaving at the end of the year.

“They really need Pecco to put in a couple of weekends of real solid dominance to remove that headache a little bit. Because the more Bastianini is competitive, the less they can utilise him as a tailgunner.”

“Bastianini doesn't know how competitive the KTM is going to be next year, but he knows the bike he's on right now is very competitive and he's got half a season to make the most of it. So I think he’s just got nothing to lose,” said McLaren.

“He’s 46 points from Bagnaia, 49 from Martin. There are 37 points available each weekend so if he delivers again like he did at Silverstone I think he's firmly in the title chase.”

Moreland asked: “Imagine if Bastianini and Bagnaia had an incident together? What would Ducati do then, because they also have to worry about Jorge Martin?”

“I wrote in a column last week that really Ducati should have told Bagnaia to move out of Bastianini’s way at Silverstone,” Duncan said. “Because at this stage of the season, if Bastianini has got the pace to beat Martin, it benefits them more in the bigger picture.

“[But looking ahead] we know from 2022, that Bastianini isn't really one for playing the company line. Because although Ducati never issued any orders as such, there was this instruction of ‘if it's for a race win, fine. But if it's a podium, leave Bagnaia to it’.

“And Bastianini didn’t really get that memo! Races like Malaysia I remember watching with my hands over my eyes! Because you could see a situation where it was all potentially going to go wrong.

“So Bastianini does have that quality to him where he is willing to have a fight and he's really willing to go up against Pecco if he gets the opportunity.

“And if there is then some kind of incident, Martin is the one to benefit the most from it. And Marc Marquez as well I guess.”

Moreland said: “Marc Marquez has almost been forgotten after this GP24 sweep at Silverstone. He’s 62 points off the championship lead. Austria is a circuit where he did well on the Honda, but never quite won. 

"Now he’s on the bike that won at the track last year but he says he's missing 4-5 seconds to beat the GP24s over a race distance. Does he need to win here to stay in the title fight?"

“It's slipping away a bit in terms of the title, isn't it?” McLaren replied. “But it’ll be interesting to see what he can do on the Ducati. There are not many tracks that Marc Marquez has not won at and now he’s on one of the best bikes around the Red Bull Ring.

“But the GP24s have something extra in acceleration, don't they? The factory ride height device, the engine power… They certainly seem to punch out of the corners.

“I think Marc’s just got to pick his battles a bit, to be honest. There will be some tracks where he does have a real chance to win, and then he's just got to go for it. 

"His best asset at the moment is probably that he doesn’t have to worry about the championship, whereas Martin, Bagnaia and arguably Bastianini do. 

“Next year is the time for Marc to think about the championship.”

“I agree. And I'm kind of thinking more towards Aragon as the weekend for Marc,” Duncan added. “A left-handed circuit that's always been really good for him.

“But the GP24 thing is interesting. Gigi Dall’Igna has made some comments recently about the GP23, and has said that ‘what we can do to that bike, we will’.

“Which I took as a thinly veiled, ‘if we can give Marc a bit of help to sort of back up Pecco and make life difficult for the other guys, we will’.

“I don’t know if they can fit the factory ride-height device to his GP23, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they turned up in Austria and it’s maybe on the bike...  

“I don't see Marc not being competitive this weekend, especially if he can get the ball rolling from Friday.

“That's kind of been the problem this year - he spoke of being ‘in delay’ for much of the Silverstone weekend - but that’s because they arrive at each event with no data for him at that track.

“If you look at like where he was on Friday at Silverstone and where he ended up on Sunday, you’ve got to give the Marquez-Frankie Carchedi duo a lot of credit.

“I still think the GP24s will have the edge in Austria, but let’s see.”